Brigham Young University’s BYU Cougars are officially in the conversation — barely. On Tuesday, November 18, 2025, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its third ranking of the 2025 season, placing BYU at No. 11 with a 9-1 record, just outside the playoff cutoff but still clinging to a sliver of hope. The announcement, made from the committee’s headquarters in Irving, Texas, came after a weekend of chaos: Alabama fell, Texas collapsed, and Notre Dame held on — again. For fans in Provo, it’s not just about winning. It’s about surviving the committee’s contradictions.
Who’s Still in Control?
The top three remained untouched: Ohio State (10-0), Indiana (11-0), and Texas A&M (10-0) held their spots. But the real story was the tumble. Alabama dropped six spots to No. 10 after losing to Oklahoma. Texas cratered seven spots to No. 17 after getting humiliated 35-10 by Georgia. Meanwhile, Notre Dame stayed at No. 9 despite a loss to Miami earlier in the season — a result that, according to ESPN, the committee clearly values less than Notre Dame’s narrow defeats to ranked opponents.Here’s the thing: the committee is punishing November losses like they’re crimes — but treating September losses like bad weather you just have to endure. BYU lost to Utah in September. So did Oregon and Georgia. Yet Oregon sits at No. 7, Georgia at No. 4. BYU? No. 11. The math doesn’t add up. But then again, neither does the logic.
The BYU Paradox
The Cougars have beaten every team on their schedule except Utah. Their wins include a statement victory over Boise State and a gritty road win at Cincinnati. They’ve played the 12th-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN’s metrics. Yet they’re ranked behind teams with worse resumes — like Notre Dame, who lost to Miami and Texas A&M, both top-10 teams, but still sits ahead. Why? Because Notre Dame’s losses were close. And the committee loves close losses to good teams. BYU’s loss? A 27-24 defeat to Utah — also a good team. But Utah is unranked. So it doesn’t count the same.It’s not just about wins. It’s about perception. And perception, right now, favors blue bloods with long histories over a program that’s been quietly building something special under Kalani Sitake. The committee’s chairman, Gary Barta, the athletic director of University of Iowa, has publicly said the committee looks at "whole season narratives." But what narrative does BYU have? One of resilience? Of consistency? Or just... too late?
The Mathematical Lifeline
There’s still a path. It’s narrow. It’s improbable. But it’s there.According to Sports Illustrated’s analysis on November 18, BYU would need a four-team parlay to sneak in: Notre Dame (92.3% chance to stay ahead), Alabama (73.5%), Oregon (55.2%), and Oklahoma (44.9%) all have to lose. That’s a 1.6% chance. But it’s not zero.
And here’s the twist: if BYU wins out — including the Big 12 Championship Game — the committee has precedent. Last year, SMU lost in the conference title game but still made the playoff because they were already in. So if BYU gets there with an 11-1 record, they won’t be punished for losing the final game. They’ll be rewarded for getting there.
Who’s Behind Them — and Why It Matters
Utah sits at No. 12, just behind BYU. Miami jumped to No. 13 after crushing NC State, but they’re still behind Notre Dame despite beating them head-to-head. Why? Because Miami lost to unranked Louisville and SMU. Notre Dame lost to ranked teams. The committee values the quality of your losses more than your wins — a philosophy that leaves teams like BYU, who beat everyone they’re supposed to, wondering if they’re being penalized for playing a schedule that didn’t include enough marquee names.The College Football Playoff Selection Committee meets again on November 25, 2025, after the final weekend of regular-season games. The final rankings drop December 7. That’s 19 days. In that time, four teams ahead of BYU must lose. Or one of them must lose twice. Or the committee must finally acknowledge that a 9-1 record with a top-15 schedule deserves more than a footnote.
What’s Next for BYU?
The Cougars host New Mexico State next Saturday — a win is expected. Then comes the gauntlet: a road trip to Provo’s rival, Utah State, followed by the Big 12 Championship if they win out. Their fate isn’t just in their hands anymore. It’s in the hands of fans in Columbus, Bloomington, College Station, and South Bend. It’s in the hands of a committee that, for all its transparency, still seems to favor tradition over truth.They’ve done everything right. Now, they wait. And hope. And pray that the numbers finally match the narrative.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is it for BYU to make the College Football Playoff?
BYU’s chances are mathematically possible but extremely slim — just 1.6% according to Sports Illustrated’s model. They need four teams ahead of them — Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma — to lose in the final two weeks. Even if BYU wins out, they’d need one of those teams to lose twice or be knocked out by an upset. The committee’s history suggests they favor traditional powerhouses, making BYU’s path more about chaos than control.
Why is BYU ranked behind Notre Dame despite having a better record?
Notre Dame (8-2) is ranked ahead of BYU (9-1) because the committee prioritizes the quality of losses over total wins. Notre Dame lost close games to Miami and Texas A&M — both top-10 teams — while BYU lost to unranked Utah. Even though BYU has more wins, the committee views Notre Dame’s losses as more "competitive," which, oddly, carries more weight than a clean record against weaker competition.
What does BYU need to do to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game?
BYU needs to finish the regular season with an 11-1 record to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game, which they would enter as the second-place team in the conference. Historically, the CFP committee hasn’t penalized teams for losing in conference title games if they’ve already earned a spot — as seen with SMU in 2024. So even if BYU loses the championship game, they could still make the playoff if they’re ranked in the top four after that game.
How does the committee’s bias affect non-powerhouse teams like BYU?
The committee has consistently favored teams from Power Five conferences, even when their resumes are weaker. BYU, despite playing a tougher schedule than several ranked teams, gets penalized for not having a traditional national brand. This creates a structural disadvantage for schools outside the traditional elite, making it nearly impossible for mid-major programs to break through unless they benefit from massive upsets among top teams — which is exactly what BYU’s playoff hopes now depend on.
When are the next CFP rankings released, and what games matter most?
The next rankings come out on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, after games through Saturday, November 22. The most critical matchups: Ohio State vs. Penn State, Indiana vs. Michigan State, Texas A&M vs. LSU, and Oklahoma vs. Kansas State. If any of those top teams lose, BYU’s odds improve dramatically. A win by Alabama over Texas Tech or Oregon over Washington could also seal BYU’s fate — for better or worse.
Is this the best chance BYU has ever had to make the CFP?
Yes. This is the most realistic playoff opportunity BYU has ever had. In 2020, they went 11-0 but were ranked No. 12 — outside the top 10 — and missed the playoff. In 2022, they finished 11-2 and were ranked No. 14. This year, they’re No. 11 with a chance to reach the Big 12 title game. The landscape is more open than ever, and the committee’s inconsistencies have created a rare opening. But whether they’ll take it depends less on BYU’s performance — and more on who else stumbles.
